2027: Tinubu Eyes Massive Votes In Kano, Lagos, Rivers

Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, President Bola Tinubu is banking on raking in an overwhelming majority of votes from Kano, Lagos and Rivers states, as political realignments in those states indicate.

However, while the All Progressives Congress (APC) is looking to leverage the recent spate of defections into its ranks by governors and other elected officials, and the much-touted performance of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the opposition argues that Nigerians’ condition will decide the ruling party’s fate in those states.

But political commentators told LEADERSHIP Sunday that the APC had the structural advantage going into the election.

Big voting strengths of Kano, Lagos, Rivers

As key commercial nerve centres, these states have a history of large numbers of registered voters nationwide, and winning or losing one, two, or all of them could determine a presidential candidate’s victory or performance in an election.

The voter register for the 2023 general election showed that Kano had 5,921,370 registered voters; Lagos, 7,060,195; and Rivers, 3,537,190.

The results of the 2023 presidential polls declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicated that the candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, won Kano State with 997,279 votes.

He was followed by the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Tinubu, who garnered 517,341 votes; the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) standard-bearer, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, came next with 131,716 votes, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) scored 8,513 votes.

In Lagos, Obi of the LP won with 582,454 votes, followed by Tinubu of the APC with 572,606 votes. The PDP’s Atiku came next with 75,750 votes, while Kwankwaso of the NNPP followed with 8,442 votes.

The 2023 presidential election results in Rivers State showed that Tinubu (APC) won the state with 231,591 votes; Obi (LP) received 175,071 votes; Atiku (PDP) followed with 88,468 votes; and Kwankwaso (NNPP) came next, with 1,322 votes.

These states also have impressive voter registration records in the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise.

Data from phases one and two of the CVR indicated that Kano recorded 161,178 registrations, second only to Osun (209,223) nationwide. Lagos recorded 124,970 registrations, while Rivers recorded 71,456.

A breakdown of data released by INEC at the end of phase one of the CVR in December 2025 showed that Kano recorded 159,669 registrations; Lagos, 123,484; and Rivers, 70,902.

Also, the latest report from phase two of the nationwide CVR released by INEC indicated that Kano recorded 1,509 prospective voters; Lagos, 1,486; and Rivers, 554.

Recent political developments in the country point to Tinubu’s firm resolve to secure a large share of votes in these states in next year’s polls.

In Kano, the combined efforts of Kwankwaso, the NNPP presidential candidate, and the party’s governorship candidate, Abba Yusuf, as well as national and state assembly candidates, might have denied Tinubu a significant number of votes in the North-West state.

However, the NNPP and Kwankwaso political structure has been disrupted by the recent defection of Governor Abba Yusuf to the APC.

Yusuf defected from the NNPP, along with his commissioners, aides, over 20 members of the Kano State House of Assembly, and about eight federal lawmakers, to the APC.

The governor is now in the same camp as prominent APC leaders in Kano, including the party’s former national chairman, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau Jibrin, to give Kwankwaso a strong fight for the political soul of the state in favour of Tinubu.

For Lagos, the odds may work in favour of Tinubu and the APC, as the LP’s presidential candidate, Obi, who won the state, and the party’s governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, have defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Apart from the LP, which was the APC’s major headache in Lagos during the 2023 polls, being weakened by these defections, the prospects of Obi emerging as the ADC presidential candidate remain unclear, as he has Atiku Abubakar—whom he came second to in the last presidential election—and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi to contend with.

Expressing this view when he appeared on Channels Television’s breakfast show Sunrise Daily on Thursday, a former presidential aspirant, Dele Momodu, said:

“Today, if you ask me about the ADC, there are prominent potential candidates. Number one on the list today will be Alhaji Atiku Abubakar because he was the vice president.

“He (Atiku) has played at the highest level, having served as vice president for eight years. He began contesting the presidency in 1993, when he stepped down in favour of Chief Abiola.

“The next person will be Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, who has been Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly for eight years.

“He has been governor for eight years. He has been a minister for eight years. Then we will go to Peter Obi, who has been governor of Anambra State, also a game changer.”

In Rivers, Tinubu’s victory was attributed to the powerful efforts of the then Governor Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), though a chieftain of the PDP.

Also, the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara, is now in the APC and, despite his disagreement with Wike, both have vowed to work together to deliver Rivers State to Tinubu.

Ardo  Zubairu 
National Secretary 
TInubu Re- Election Project 2027 . Office Phones: 
08033305195
08098885195
07033454053

Follow this link to join  https://chat.whatsapp.com/GGyI5S8pxi78dcZ3fKciGB

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