Kperogi: "let it be."By Tahir Ibrahim Tahir.

The idea of a muslim-muslim ticket has been a long time coming and today it has come to pass. The idea of a southern muslim as president too has come to pass and the Abiola dream of Hope '93 has found fruition in Tinubu.

 A long time ago it was an impossibility but over time our democracy has withstood the test of time and the test of religion and has fathered a yoruba muslim as president. Tinubu himself has had to sacrifice his ambition to give way to a christian VP in Tunde Bakare and Prof. Osinbajo before eventually "emiloka-ing" the discourse and presenting himself. 

He also did so alongside a muslim VP. Even if Sen. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not pick Shettima, it would have been Ganduje or Elrufai or Ribadu and so on. Such were the permutations within the APC hierarchy before Tinubu settled for his mentee Shettima. The push for a christian VP or christian president from the north is a genuine voice just as was the push for a south-south president which has come to pass. 

However it is important to know when to continue pushing and when to tarry a bit and live to fight another day. The message has duly been noted by the Nigerian polity and it is a project in waiting and would definitely see the light of day as we progress and develop as a nation. It is hardly a project for 2027, atleast a successful one that is. It must be allowed to come organically and not by 'unholy' manouvre. 

The push for a christian VP to replace Shettima is understandable from a christian Nigerian perspective but it is not a comprehensible one politically. Not at this moment it is absolutely suicidal. Kperogi too in his latest submission admitted that, "Shettima is primarily a northern muslim who provides the symbolic conduit through which muslims in the north identify with the administration he is a part of. He also highlighted that replacing Shettima would make the ticket a Yoruba-christian ticket as Tinubu’s self and collective identity-definition is Yoruba. Kperogi also stressed that 63% of Tinubu’s votes from the north came from the muslim north as northern christians voted for Peter Obi. As it is, yes he is right that northern christians have warmed up to the Tinubu muslim-muslim govt with the likes of Gen. Musa as Defense Minister and Prof. Nentawe as APC chairman, and this may undercut Peter Obi's claim to the northern christian vote. 

But it will be a foolhardy decision to put any of them in the VP position and assume that it is enough to win the christian votes in the north. That assumption is the height of political naivety. It is not pragmatic to assume that Peter Obi will not harvest most of the northern christian vote. He will still garner most of it, only this time, 10 to 20% of it may be lost to the assumed warm up that Kperogi is referring to. So also the claim that 62% of Tinubu’s appointments have gone to christians is not equivalent to saying Tinubu’s appointments in the North have largely been to the christian north. 

The Yoruba identity in the Tinubu administration must reckon that having a northern christian at this material time on the Tinubu 2027 mandate is equivalent to losing the Yoruba presidency. But on the religious card implication, it could mean winning a christian presidency via Peter Obi and if that is what they actually want, so be it. The choice is there's to make afterall. It is also important for the President's men to accept that it will lose if not all, almost all of its closest and staunchest Muslim north allies. 

This Kperogi also acceded to, where he said, "This choice (replacing Shettima with a christian nominee) comes with an even more poignant existential implication. Historically in moments of political trauma, northern elites tend to instrumentalise religion to rouse the masses to popular action". Kperogi did explain that christians are more happy with the Tinubu administration and what have you while MURiC and the muslim north are agonising over its lack of benefit to the muslim ummah in the country. If that is the case, then why is the christian community really so bothered about pushing for a christian replacement for Shettima? Doesn't the benefit of the current muslim-muslim presidency outweigh the nomenclature of the muslim-muslim ticket? 

For the APC and its loyalist, and the supporters of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR; the electoral victory of the present ticket as it stands with Shettima whom Kperogi described as one with great cosmopoltical credentials; is safer and clearly more guaranteed. Any adventures or experiments at this time would be playing to the gallery of the opposition, most notably ADC's Atiku & NDC's Peter Obi. A miss-step by the APC's Tinubu/ Shettima will become a huge leap for the two most ambitious candidates who came 2nd and 3rd in 2023. While the opposition are building blocks and forging alliances, Mr. President's kitchen cabinet should not be frolicking with risky ideas.

 If they want to serve President Tinubu’s interest of winning the election, then they must hurry past this noble but ill-timed proposition. A while ago those that thought calling in the US to participate in our fight against terrorism would further exercebate our religious tensions and disenfranchise the muslim north became disappointed; those driving this (replacing Shettima) agenda will surely be disappointed too. Religion is risky business and if Mr. President's advisers really want to guide him to victory come 2027, then tampering with the star boy of his 63% northern muslim votes of the last elections is now a taboo. And again like Kperogi said, even if it did succeed, President Tinubu would have to preside over an unprecedentededly convulsive Nigeria. Why would we all want that?

Tahir is Talban Bauchi.